Market cycle intelligence · When > How

Every market moves through 4 phases. The people who profit know which phase we're in before the competition.

Cignal System separates leading indicators from trailing ones so you can see the turn while it's still forming, not after it shows up in the comps. Pick your market and read the cycle the way professionals do.

FIND YOUR MARKET HOW THE METHOD WORKS

10Y Treasury

5.15%

Oct 19, 2026

Fed Funds (eff.)

3.75%

+0.12 MoM · Sep 2026

CPI Inflation

+3.7%

YoY · Sep 2026

Unemployment

4.2%

+0.1pp MoM · Sep 2026

Consumer Sentiment

48.1

-3.6 MoM · Sep 2026

Sources: U.S. Treasury; Federal Reserve and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED; University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, Surveys of Consumers.

Macro conditions · Layer 3

Reading the tape…

The same economy reads differently depending on what you own. Pick your market below for the phase call.

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Choose your lens

One method. Read for what you own.

Each market gets its own indicators, signals and phase call, built on the same four-phase framework and the same macro layer.

Multifamily

Owners, operators, syndicators, lenders, property management and asset managers

● LIVE

Know when supply, rents and rates are turning in your submarket before the comps show it.

  • Absorption rate
  • Multifamily starts
  • Effective rent growth
ENTER MULTIFAMILY

Passive Investors

Limited partners in syndications, funds and JV partnerships

● LIVE

Judge whether a sponsor is buying at the right point in the cycle before you wire the money.

  • Cap rate vs. 10Y spread
  • National vacancy
  • Debt service coverage
ENTER PASSIVE INVESTORS

Real Estate Investors

SFR, small multifamily, commercial, self storage, hotel, retail, medical and land

● LIVE

Time acquisitions, refinances and exits to the housing cycle rather than the headlines.

  • Home sales
  • Housing starts
  • Rent growth
ENTER REAL ESTATE INVESTORS

Business Owners

Small to mid-size businesses: retail, restaurants, contractors, professional services and local service companies

EARLY ACCESS

Plan hiring, inventory and expansion around the cycle your customers are actually in.

  • Consumer sentiment
  • Employment
  • Credit spreads

The method

Timing beats selection.

A good asset bought in the wrong phase loses to an average one bought in the right phase. The framework is the same in every market: find the phase, then act on it.

  1. 01

    Recovery

    Occupancy bottoms, new construction is scarce. Fundamentals improve before sentiment does.

  2. 02

    Expansion

    Demand outruns supply, rents climb, and capital and construction follow the returns.

  3. 03

    Hypersupply

    Deliveries outrun demand. Concessions creep in while the headlines still read strong.

  4. 04

    Contraction

    Occupancy and rents fall, values reset. Hypersupply can persist well into this phase.

Leading vs. trailing

Most investors react to trailing data: last quarter's or last month's vacancy, last quarter's or last month's rent growth. Cignal keeps leading indicators separate from trailing ones and never blends them, so the early warning isn't washed out by the lagging consensus.

Three layers, outside in

LAYER 3

Macro. Rates, inflation, jobs, sentiment. The tide every market swims in.

LAYER 2

Industry. Starts, absorption, vacancy, credit. How your asset class is responding.

LAYER 1

Submarket. Rents, concessions and days on market in your ZIP. Where deals are won.

LEARN THE FULL METHOD: ECONIQ TRAINING

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